lunes, noviembre 24, 2003

Otra visión del "error de diciembre"

Según un muy interesante artículo del alabado y críticado Doug Henwood, el error no fue de Zedilo sino de Salinas... solo un fragmento:

"Capital began exiting Mexico well before the peso's collapse. The Mexico Fund, a basket of Mexican stocks packaged for trading on the New York Stock Exchange that is an excellent proxy for foreign (mainly U.S.) interest in the country, lost 20% of its value between its January 1994 peak (the first month of the Zapatista revolution) and Zedillio's inauguration. The peso didn't, suggesting that the Bank of Mexico spent its reserves supporting the currency, which is a kind way of saying that the Bank accommodated fleeing investors with overvalued pesos, exchanging dollars for pesos at a rate they must have known was unsustainably wrong. Central banks can be quite generous in a pinch.

In early 1994, as the Mexico Fund was peaking, the central bank had $26 billion in foreign exchange reserves, presumably the residue of the flood of capital into the country. On the eve of the U.S. bailout package, Mexico was down to its last $2 billion in reserves, as good as none, meaning that over $20 billion was squandered maintaining the peso's comforting but falsely high value."

Ojalá Salinas en lugar de publicar propaganda pudiera contestar preguntas de forma pública...


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